Montana needs quality workers to build the infrastructure allotted in recently passed bipartisan bills, but recent changes in apprenticeship ratios put safety, quality, and longterm wage considerations at risk.
Like most Montanans, we love our ratios like we love our recipes. Here's a few to ponder:
4:1 — the ratio of wins in the last 5 meetings between Montana State and Montana.
3:1 — the ideal ratio of flour to brown sugar in our family’s apple bake recipe.
11,000,000 : 840 — the population of trout to people in Ennis, MT.
1:2 - the previous ratio of apprentices to journeyman in Montana.
2:1 — the current ratio of apprentice to journeyman in Montana.
399:1 — CEO to worker pay in the US.
While the first ratio is a number we can all argue on and will change every year, I think we’d all agree that the next couple, if changed, would essentially ruin the recipe for a good time or a wonderful meal. With the recent changes in the apprentice ratios, the powers that be are seeking to develop more of Montana, faster, with lower quality and riskier training — all under the guise of building “opportunities” to keep the last ratio in place. Just like the recipe of fish to people, a proper ratio of apprentices to journeymen ensures a proper balance, secured future, and quality of life in Montana. Not surprisingly, those seeking to undermine existing structures are readying the hordes to develop everything they can with the cheapest labor possible at a pace not dissimilar to compounding interest. What are working Montanans to do?
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn't, pays it” - Einstein
Apprentice Program Design
Apprenticeship programs prepare highly skilled workers by combining on the job training with classroom instruction. These jobs are primarily found in the construction industry and manufacturing, and the programs create double structure of oversight: corporate and legal. In the US, the National Apprenticeship Act of 1937 authorized the U.S. Secretary of Labor, in cooperation with the states, to oversee the nation's apprenticeship system. States were then given the freedom of control over ratios. The nationally structured system was designed to ensure individuals are trained to a higher standard and, more importantly, the training is carried out safely. The longstanding tradition in Montana has been to safeguard worker safety and financial security. That is all changing -- and doing so rapidly. So, how are other industries safeguarding quality and safety?
Comparative Analysis
Medical field — It’s no secret that the medical world has firmly figured out how to control quality of service and life in their labor market while meeting demand. For more than 20 years, the number of federally supported residency (apprenticeship) training slots has been capped by Congress. As a result, the number of residency positions has risen only 1% a year. For comparison, ratios like the one recently enacted in Montana just increased the tradesperson training ratio 400%. If we saw similar ratios in the medical world, we’d have 1,200 times the number of surgeons in 12 years. The medical community knows this ratio well, having learned in the early 1900's that allowing too many workers rush into a boom market degrades training and quality outcomes. Furthermore, those doing the training end up with an undue burden to watch over trainees in dangerous fields of work. They've learned that stable program ratios ensure those training hours weren't wasted on future out-of-work medical professionals.
Military - We train our military in a similar fashion to ready soldiers for maintenance positions in combat. The correct apprenticeship to journeyman ratio has shown to be far more effective than putting gross volumes of soldiers on the ground, and it ensures quality training on highly sophisticated (and sometimes dangerous) equipment. The Air Force uses a ratio of 3:1 journeyman to apprentice ratios in most mechanical based shops as a metric to train soldiers on the job once they finish technical school. This allows for greater competency and time for continued career development at the Journeyman level -- a critical oversight often missed. We have political leaders in Montana that value the military training regimen, so it begs the question — why would are we pushing for the extreme high end of apprenticeship ratios that would have crippled our military?
Logarithmic Growth and Compounding Interest
In many ways, ratio flips like the one we're seeing with apprenticeship ratios in Montana operate like compounding interest. Here is a comparison of how those ratios, if operating at maximum capacity, would affect the electrician labor market in the next 20 years:
*Assumes the standard life cycle of an electrician is 4-5 years as an apprentice and 30-35 years as journeyman. Each cycle is assuming 100% retention less retirement attrition per 4 year cycle.
As you can see from the table, given unchecked growth leads to a free-for-all without guaranteed work ratios. In the medical world, if these ratios were enacted today, then in 10 years there would be physicians haggling for the “opportunity” to find you a kidney, maybe a quick botox injection while you fill your tank with gas. You’d have neurosurgeons serving you coffee before their afternoon surgery, ENT docs driving your Uber on the weekends, and Orthopedic surgeons long haul trucking in the shoulder seasons. Sound absurd? These situations have happened in the past when schools have pushed for too many students without a plan for longterm employment.
The results of these training markets can cripple professional industries in local areas. Such ratio mismanagement resulted in excess dentists entering markets in the 70's, chiropractors in the mid 2000's, and pilots in the 1980's. In these times of flux, private entities come into the fray, making bold promises to prospective students. As crazy as it sounds, there are actually International firms investing heavily in the US medical training market to make a profit lobbying and exploiting these ratios where state lobbying failed to plan and defend their own training systems. These international businesses are building schools to exploit young Americans, saddling them with debt in markets that aren't adequately planning to train individuals. They invest highly in marketing with words like "opportunity", "train in a beautiful location", and "get your certificate in a job market that is hot". However, there exists no back end to ensure these future working professionals will have enough work to pay off the large debt. In many ways, these factors resemble the principle of compound interest.
Einstein once said that the “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn't, pays it”. Well, it looks like Montanan workers are going to be paying interest on this poor decision for quite some time. By 2032, the number of Journeyman workers in the 2:1 ratio would be nearly 10 times the number relative to the previous ratio. These policies are short sighted, putting more workers in harms way as supervisors are stretched. Bad things happen quickly to inexperienced folks on a job site -- literally at the flick of a switch. Jobs can also cost more to complete if too many inexperienced apprentices can't meet the production capability that seasoned journeyman can provide.
Worker Safety at the Heart of the Issue
The data is clear: ‘for every 10 per cent increase in the percentage of apprentices to journeypersons on the jobsite (in one hazardous, unionized trade) there was a 27 per cent increase in ladder falls,’ (Kaskutas et al, 2010). The author went to note that non-union labor related accidents are both poorly recorded and often underreported. They concluded that an "Integration of needs assessment results was invaluable in revising the school-based carpenters apprentice fall prevention curriculum.... To suggest there isn’t a link between the ratio of apprentices to journeypersons and worker safety in dangerous trades ignores peer reviewed, quantitative research, as well as longitudinal research." ~ Gavan Howe.
Among the states that have similar training ratios as those just enacted are Wyoming and Georgia. Not surprisingly, Georgia boasts one of the lowest wages and safety records (bottom third) than any other state in the country. Wyoming ranked dead (no pun intended) last.
So, why are these ratios being pushed ?
The answer is obvious — more apprenticeships relative to trainers means more pressure on wages, disruption in the balanced work life, and depressed quality of life for working Montanans in the long run. We are seeing a large swath of executives in this country putting pressure on existing systems so that they can get more, faster, cheaper. Their marketing slogans are catching young adults in high school and giving them a pipe dream that simply won’t be sustainable under the guise of "freedom and opportunity". While a change in apprentice ratios may not seem like a big deal to many outside the labor world, these modifications will increase the numbers of workers entering the workforce at a logarithmic level over the following years. This change will create ripples felt in every working class home and push for unsustainable development.
So, just like your family recipe, it's best to not mess with ratios. They keep the right cook in the kitchen and guarantee a quality meal.
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